New York Yankees @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Sun 9/20 · 7:10 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

TOTAL · OVER 7.5 RUNS

C cards like this have won 52% over · market 47%

FIRST 5 INNINGS · OVER 3.5

C cards like this have won 51% over · market 52%

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 6-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

The home starter walks 5% of batters, adjusted — a lower walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far — counts toward the over46%

The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 gamesagainst the over21%

Defense leans under — mostly the away teamagainst the over14%

The home team's bullpen rested the last three daysagainst the over10%

The away team gives up stolen bases10%

Market: Over 7.5 runs at +106 (pinnacle, quoted 6:00 PM CDT) · model expects ~8.2 runs · divergence 6 points — band C. lean, not edge-demonstrated C-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. C cards in this market have won 52.2% of 2,317 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +1.0 points over break-even at the close. Not a betting-plan cell.

FIRST 5Frozen C at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held.

TOTALFrozen no lean at 8:15 AM CDT · the market moved away from it · final grade C.

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)Hot day (90°+)

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip.

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.547419828568428,
  "p_shipped": 0.4587014348514913,
  "model_mu": 3.712317326655365,
  "market_p": 0.4652956298200514,
  "divergence": 0.08212419874837656,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 4.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
    "share": 0.2737,
    "contribution": -0.06844,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 state not known at grade time",
    "share": 0.247,
    "contribution": 0.06177,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "is_retract",
     "alt_kft",
     "wx_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1846,
    "contribution": 0.04617,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.1627,
    "contribution": 0.04068,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.132,
    "contribution": 0.033,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-19T23:00:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 121,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5745212418380592,
  "p_shipped": 0.5226012007786416,
  "model_mu": 4.430507055449364,
  "market_p": 0.518041237113402,
  "divergence": 0.056480004724657196,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 3.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T23:00:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported closed before first pitch",
    "share": 0.294,
    "contribution": 0.07725,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "is_retract",
     "alt_kft",
     "wind_out_comp"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
    "share": 0.2605,
    "contribution": -0.06844,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Starting pitchers leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.1757,
    "contribution": 0.04617,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run narrower than the league this past year \u2014 fewer called strikes",
    "share": 0.1548,
    "contribution": 0.04068,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_width_rel",
     "ump_acc_rel",
     "ump_edge_cs_rel"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
    "share": 0.115,
    "contribution": 0.03023,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5138940590848692,
  "p_shipped": 0.490738730243721,
  "model_mu": 6.843586597742992,
  "market_p": 0.47814910025706947,
  "divergence": 0.03574495882779971,
  "band": null,
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T13:15:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter walks 5% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
    "share": 0.407,
    "contribution": 0.20584,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.1928,
    "contribution": -0.09749,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "a_platoon_miss"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.125,
    "contribution": -0.06324,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_unearned30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "No wind reading \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
    "share": 0.0987,
    "contribution": -0.0499,
    "kind": "gap",
    "features": [
     "wind_miss",
     "is_retract",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The home team's bullpen rested the last three days",
    "share": 0.09,
    "contribution": -0.0455,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The away team gives up stolen bases",
    "share": 0.0866,
    "contribution": 0.04379,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_cs30",
     "a_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-19T23:00:21Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 117,
  "feature_version": 5,
  "model_p": 0.5354335844173558,
  "p_shipped": 0.47944063539795617,
  "model_mu": 8.211094159191,
  "market_p": 0.47043701799485865,
  "divergence": 0.06499656642249713,
  "band": "C",
  "anchor_line": 7.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-19T23:00:21Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": null,
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter walks 5% of batters, adjusted \u2014 a lower walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the over",
    "share": 0.4564,
    "contribution": 0.20584,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_bb_pct_shr",
     "a_sp_k_pct_shr",
     "h_sp_k_pct_shr"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.2054,
    "contribution": -0.09262,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_xbh30",
     "a_off_hr30",
     "h_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1402,
    "contribution": -0.06324,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "a_unearned30",
     "h_unearned30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "The home team's bullpen rested the last three days",
    "share": 0.1009,
    "contribution": -0.0455,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_apps_3d",
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_b2b"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The away team gives up stolen bases",
    "share": 0.0971,
    "contribution": 0.04379,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_cs30",
     "a_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]