Raw grade details (all passes)
[
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.5064592023335234,
"p_shipped": 0.4861230673835056,
"model_mu": 4.938601595290607,
"market_p": 0.5038961038961038,
"divergence": 0.002563098437419531,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 5.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "push",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "No prior major-league start on record for both starters \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.4694,
"contribution": 0.27733,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"h_sp_days_rest_miss",
"a_sp_days_rest_miss",
"h_sp_pitch_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No recent umpire zone reading against the league \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.218,
"contribution": -0.12879,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_rel_miss",
"ump_acc_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd"
]
},
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.1312,
"contribution": -0.07749,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"h_cs30",
"h_wp_pb30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 state not known at grade time",
"share": 0.1042,
"contribution": 0.06154,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"alt_kft",
"wx_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0528,
"contribution": 0.0312,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "Team strength & form leans under \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.0244,
"contribution": -0.0144,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rs30",
"h_ra30",
"a_elo"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "f5_total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T00:30:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 121,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.4497559846278938,
"p_shipped": 0.4586695899963374,
"model_mu": 5.134556479426387,
"market_p": 0.47043701799485865,
"divergence": -0.020681033366964863,
"band": null,
"anchor_line": 5.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T00:30:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "push",
"factors": [
{
"family": "battery",
"phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
"share": 0.2688,
"contribution": -0.1005,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_cat_framing_prior",
"a_backup_catcher",
"h_cs30"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "Offense profile leans over \u2014 mostly the home team",
"share": 0.2088,
"contribution": 0.07809,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_xbh30",
"h_platoon_share"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "Retractable roof \u2014 reported closed before first pitch",
"share": 0.206,
"contribution": 0.07702,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"is_retract",
"alt_kft",
"wind_out_comp"
]
},
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.1925,
"contribution": -0.07199,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"a_sp_mix_drift",
"h_sp_pitches_30d"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire's strike zone has run wider than the league this past year \u2014 more called strikes",
"share": 0.1239,
"contribution": -0.04633,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_width_rel",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_rel"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "first",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.44870436519156764,
"p_shipped": 0.5032606966980497,
"model_mu": 8.446337886600366,
"market_p": 0.5012919896640827,
"divergence": -0.05258762447251508,
"band": "C",
"anchor_line": 9.0,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-11T13:15:30Z",
"lineup_known": 0,
"ump_state": "unknown",
"weather_kind": "none",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "No pitch-tracking data for both starters \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.3382,
"contribution": 0.18202,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"h_sp_pitch_miss",
"a_sp_pitch_miss",
"h_sp_days_rest_miss"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.159,
"contribution": -0.08559,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rest0",
"a_tz2",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "No umpire zone data \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.1103,
"contribution": -0.05936,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"ump_zone_miss",
"ump_gate_miss",
"ump_acc_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "offense",
"phrase": "The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games",
"share": 0.1079,
"contribution": -0.05807,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_off_xbh30",
"h_off_hr30",
"h_off_k30"
]
},
{
"family": "park",
"phrase": "No wind reading \u2014 graded on league-typical assumptions",
"share": 0.0892,
"contribution": -0.048,
"kind": "gap",
"features": [
"wind_miss",
"is_retract",
"park_f5_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "The away team's defense sure-handed",
"share": 0.0693,
"contribution": -0.03727,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_unearned30",
"a_err30",
"h_err30"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "No recent call-ups in either lineup",
"share": 0.0636,
"contribution": -0.03421,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
},
{
"family": "strength",
"phrase": "The home team allowing 4 runs a game, last 30 \u2014 below league average",
"share": 0.0625,
"contribution": -0.03363,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_ra30",
"a_rs30",
"a_ra30"
]
}
]
},
{
"market": "total",
"pass_kind": "final",
"graded_utc": "2026-09-12T00:30:36Z",
"rung": "l1",
"fit_id": 117,
"feature_version": 5,
"model_p": 0.39923083616676147,
"p_shipped": 0.5118709234555872,
"model_mu": 8.18976962170093,
"market_p": 0.5256410256410255,
"divergence": -0.12641018947426408,
"band": "A",
"anchor_line": 8.5,
"anchor_book": "pinnacle",
"anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-12T00:30:36Z",
"lineup_known": 1,
"ump_state": "confirmed",
"weather_kind": "forecast",
"result": "lost",
"factors": [
{
"family": "starters",
"phrase": "Starting pitchers leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.364,
"contribution": -0.12401,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_sp_k_pct_shr",
"h_sp_starts_c10",
"h_sp_bb_pct_shr"
]
},
{
"family": "situational",
"phrase": "Schedule spot leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
"share": 0.2512,
"contribution": -0.08559,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_rest0",
"a_tz2",
"a_miles7d_k"
]
},
{
"family": "ump",
"phrase": "Umpire leans under",
"share": 0.1749,
"contribution": -0.05957,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"ump_rpg_dev_sd",
"ump_bb_dev_sd",
"ump_edge_cs_asof"
]
},
{
"family": "defense",
"phrase": "The away team's defense sure-handed",
"share": 0.1094,
"contribution": -0.03727,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"a_unearned30",
"a_err30",
"h_err30"
]
},
{
"family": "lineup",
"phrase": "No recent call-ups in either lineup",
"share": 0.1004,
"contribution": -0.03421,
"kind": "driver",
"features": [
"h_recent_debuts",
"a_recent_debuts"
]
}
]
}
]