Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Wed 9/2 · 2:40 PM CDT · forecast weather in the grade · ump: confirmed

FIRST 5 INNINGS · UNDER 4.5

A cards like this have won 55% under · market 47% · stake 1u

TOTAL · UNDER 8.5 RUNS

B cards like this have won 52% under · market 48% · stake 0.5u

the letter is how far we sit from the market, not how sure we are

THE PICTURE — what's driving the 14-point gapsized against each other · measured against the line — a stat the market already prices can point opposite its usual read

The home starter likely goes only an inning or two — relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far — counts toward the under62%

High-strikeout umpire zone15%

The away team below league average in home runs, last 30 games13%

Backup catcher starting8%

Day game3%

Market: First-5-innings Under 4.5 at +104 (pinnacle, quoted 1:30 PM CDT) · model expects ~4.2 runs · divergence 14 points — band A. A-band cutoffs fitted on OOF 2021-2024; the live record starts with this log. A cards in this market have won 54.6% of 414 out-of-sample grades (2021-2024), +3.7 points over break-even at the close. Plan cell · suggested stake 1u of the flat unit — the stake follows the cell, not this card's number.

FIRST 5Frozen A at 8:15 AM CDT · the number held. · both passes leaned this way.

TOTALFrozen A at 8:15 AM CDT · the market came toward our number · final grade B. · both passes leaned this way.

FIRST 5anchor First-5 Under 4.5 +104 → closed First-5 Under 5.0 -120 · away

TOTALanchor Under 8.5 runs +101 → closed +105 · away

SITUATIONAL CONDITIONSdetected for this game · not a grade input — anything that carries weight appears in THE PICTURE

Catcher rest spotVeteran rest spotDay game after a night gameGetaway day (day game, then travel)Deep into a road trip (game 7+)Time-zone spot (playing 2+ zones from home)Hot day (90°+)

Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement is as often our error as the market's. Moneyline gets no grade because our model hasn't beaten that market and says so. Graded against the line at grade time; the model was validated against closing lines. Weather from forecast; regrade if conditions flip. F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023-2025).

Raw grade details (all passes)

[
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 16,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.3577762892289475,
  "p_shipped": 0.48109479325683285,
  "model_mu": 3.5873304269108637,
  "market_p": 0.5090909090909091,
  "divergence": -0.15131461986196165,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 5.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter likely goes only an inning or two \u2014 relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.5677,
    "contribution": -0.26124,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_opener",
     "a_sp_mix_drift",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "The home team's catcher gains extra strikes behind the plate",
    "share": 0.1573,
    "contribution": -0.07236,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30",
     "a_cat_framing_prior"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "High-strikeout umpire zone",
    "share": 0.1363,
    "contribution": -0.06273,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_k_dev_sd",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.0782,
    "contribution": -0.03599,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_hr30",
     "a_off_bb30",
     "h_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.0605,
    "contribution": -0.02785,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "is_retract",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "f5_total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-02T18:30:09Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 16,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.3897353820483579,
  "p_shipped": 0.4960597469592395,
  "model_mu": 4.243962651996204,
  "market_p": 0.5257731958762887,
  "divergence": -0.1360378138279308,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 4.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T18:30:09Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "The home starter likely goes only an inning or two \u2014 relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far \u2014 counts toward the under",
    "share": 0.6185,
    "contribution": -0.26124,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_opener",
     "a_sp_mix_drift",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "High-strikeout umpire zone",
    "share": 0.1485,
    "contribution": -0.06273,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_k_dev_sd",
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "offense",
    "phrase": "The away team below league average in home runs, last 30 games",
    "share": 0.127,
    "contribution": -0.05365,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_off_hr30",
     "a_off_bb30",
     "h_off_hr30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "battery",
    "phrase": "Backup catcher starting",
    "share": 0.0754,
    "contribution": -0.03185,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_backup_catcher",
     "h_cat_framing_prior",
     "h_cs30"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.0305,
    "contribution": -0.01288,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "is_retract",
     "alt_kft"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "first",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 12,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.3961528481595635,
  "p_shipped": 0.5097569139494534,
  "model_mu": 7.2229029994631615,
  "market_p": 0.5257731958762887,
  "divergence": -0.1296203477167252,
  "band": "A",
  "anchor_line": 9.0,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T13:15:22Z",
  "lineup_known": 0,
  "ump_state": "projected",
  "weather_kind": "none",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.313,
    "contribution": -0.14126,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Early-season sample on the home starter (0 starts)",
    "share": 0.2771,
    "contribution": -0.12506,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "a_sp_mix_drift",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1621,
    "contribution": -0.07314,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_k_pct30",
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
    "share": 0.1305,
    "contribution": -0.05889,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "defense",
    "phrase": "Defense leans over \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1172,
    "contribution": 0.05291,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "a_err30",
     "h_err30",
     "h_unearned30"
    ]
   }
  ]
 },
 {
  "market": "total",
  "pass_kind": "final",
  "graded_utc": "2026-09-02T18:30:09Z",
  "rung": "l1",
  "fit_id": 12,
  "feature_version": 2,
  "model_p": 0.410639865327936,
  "p_shipped": 0.49764270367142116,
  "model_mu": 8.145888604632248,
  "market_p": 0.5167095115681234,
  "divergence": -0.10606964624018739,
  "band": "B",
  "anchor_line": 8.5,
  "anchor_book": "pinnacle",
  "anchor_fetched_utc": "2026-09-02T18:30:09Z",
  "lineup_known": 1,
  "ump_state": "confirmed",
  "weather_kind": "forecast",
  "result": "won",
  "factors": [
   {
    "family": "situational",
    "phrase": "Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team \u2014 day game, then travel",
    "share": 0.277,
    "contribution": -0.14126,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_rest0",
     "a_rest0",
     "a_getaway"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "starters",
    "phrase": "Early-season sample on the home starter (0 starts)",
    "share": 0.2452,
    "contribution": -0.12506,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_sp_starts_c10",
     "a_sp_mix_drift",
     "h_sp_pitches_30d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "park",
    "phrase": "Day game",
    "share": 0.2189,
    "contribution": 0.11162,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "day_game",
     "is_retract",
     "park_f5_asof"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "bullpen",
    "phrase": "Bullpen leans under \u2014 mostly the away team",
    "share": 0.1434,
    "contribution": -0.07314,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "h_bp_k_pct30",
     "h_bp_pitches_3d",
     "a_bp_apps_3d"
    ]
   },
   {
    "family": "ump",
    "phrase": "Strike-throwing umpire zone",
    "share": 0.1155,
    "contribution": -0.05889,
    "kind": "driver",
    "features": [
     "ump_bb_dev_sd",
     "ump_edge_cs_asof",
     "ump_acc_asof"
    ]
   }
  ]
 }
]