You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
THE RECORDA 36–44 · B 124–98 · C 165–152 · 34 push — prospective, every grade frozen before first pitch and settled by machine.full record →
BEST OF THE SLATE
FEATURED · HIGHEST CONVICTION · stake 1u
Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves
11:15 AM CDTA Under 8.5 runshitwas B at 8:15 AM CDT · market moved awayno lean · First-5 Under 4.5
Nick Martinez
Martín Pérezmarket 51%
A cards won 54% · gap 3.0 · stake 1u
Schedule spot: getaway day for the away team — day game, then travel
full card →FINAL123456789RTB0000000011ATL00000003—3
game view →B GRADES· 1
Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies
12:05 PM CDTB Under 8.5 runshitC First-5 Under 4.5hitwas no lean at 8:15 AM CDT · market moved away
Cristian Javier
Zack WheelerTOTALmarket 50%
B cards won 52% · gap 1.8 · stake 0.5u
FIRST 5market 51%
C cards won 51% · gap 0.0
87°F — heat carries the ballagainst the under
full card →FINAL123456789RHOU0100000012PHI0000100001
game view →C GRADES· worth a look, thinner edge
Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners
3:10 PM CDTC Over 7.0 runspushno lean · First-5 Under 3.5
Jacob deGrom
Logan GilbertFINAL123456789RTEX0020100003SEA00000040—4
game view →Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox
6:40 PM CDTC First-5 Over 4.0misswas no lean at 8:15 AM CDT · market moved awayno lean · Under 7.5 runs
Jared Jones
Hagen SmithFINAL123456789RPIT0001000102CWS0000000000
game view →THE REST OF THE SLATE· 1 game, no lean — the market has these priced
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement doesn't earn extra conviction. Moneyline is ungraded because the model hasn't beaten that market, and we say so. Model fit 2021–2025, leave-one-season-out; F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023–2025). No grade is ever re-graded; only its result is filled in after the game. · Research, not betting advice. 21+. Problem? 1-800-GAMBLER.