You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
THE RECORDA 38–45 · B 125–101 · C 171–154 · 37 push — prospective, every grade frozen before first pitch and settled by machine.full record →
BEST OF THE SLATE
FEATURED · HIGHEST CONVICTION · stake 1u
San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates
5:40 PM CDTA First-5 Over 4.0hitwas C at 8:15 AM CDT · market moved awayno lean · Over 7.5 runs
Logan Webb
Paul Skenesmarket 47%
A cards won 55% · gap 8.0 · stake 1u
86°F — heat carries the ball
full card →FINAL123456789RSF05000205012PIT20900010113
game view →A GRADES· 1 more
Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox
5:45 PM CDTA First-5 Over 4.0hitwas no lean at 8:15 AM CDT · market moved awayC Under 7.0 runsmiss
Bryan Woo
Jedixson PaezTOTALmarket 47%
C cards won 52% · gap 5.4
FIRST 5market 49%
A cards won 55% · gap 5.8 · stake 1u
The home starter hasn't thrown a major-league pitch in 30 days
full card →FINAL123456789RSEA1511100009BOS1000012026
game view →B GRADES· 4
Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals
6:40 PM CDTB First-5 Over 5.5misswas no lean at 8:15 AM CDT · market moved awayno lean · Under 10.0 runs
Tyler Phillips
Randy Dobnakmarket 49%
B cards won 49% · gap 0.4
97°F — heat carries the ball
full card →FINAL123456789RMIA0200103006KC0000000213
game view →Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs
6:40 PM CDTB First-5 Over 5.5missno lean · Under 10.0 runs
Robert Gasser
Matthew Boydmarket 47%
B cards won 49% · gap 2.0
Game-time temperature 83°F
full card →FINAL123456789RMIL0000142209CHC0003010004
game view →Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies
7:40 PM CDTB Under 11.0 runshitwas C at 8:38 AM CDT · market moved awayno lean · First-5 Under 6.0
Kyle Bradish
Gabriel Hughesmarket 48%
B cards won 52% · gap 4.4 · stake 0.5u
Bullpen leans under
SERIES_UNDER The last game in this series finished 8 runs under its closing total — 3 runs against a total of 11. In 2021–25, the next game went under 54.6% of the time · personal rule, not graded
full card →FINAL123456789RBAL0010001002COL02000020—4
game view →Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins
6:40 PM CDTB Over 8.5 runshitwas C at 8:38 AM CDT · market moved awayno lean · First-5 Over 4.5
Troy Melton
Andrew Morrismarket 50%
B cards won 52% · gap 1.8 · stake 0.5u
Game-time temperature 84°F
full card →FINAL123456789RDET1000000102MIN100031001—15
game view →C GRADES· worth a look, thinner edge
Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros
7:10 PM CDTC Under 8.5 runshitwas B at 8:38 AM CDT · market moved toward usC First-5 Over 5.0miss
Sean Burke
Ronel BlancoFINAL123456789RCWS0000302005HOU0000000101
game view →San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds
5:40 PM CDTC First-5 Over 5.0misswas A at 8:15 AM CDT · market moved toward usno lean · Over 9.0 runs
Randy Vásquez
Nick Lodolo SERIES_UNDER The last game in this series finished 4 runs under its closing total — 5 runs against a total of 9. In 2021–25, the next game went under 54.6% of the time · personal rule, not graded
full card →FINAL123456789RSD1000100013CIN10001002—4
game view →Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
8:40 PM CDTC Over 7.5 runshitwas no lean at 8:38 AM CDT · market moved awayno lean · First-5 Under 3.5
Jesús Luzardo
Eduardo Rodriguez SERIES_UNDER The last game in this series finished 5 runs under its closing total — 3 runs against a total of 8. In 2021–25, the next game went under 54.6% of the time · personal rule, not graded · this card grades the OVER — the rule points the other way
full card →FINAL123456789RPHI2000100317AZ0000100001
game view →St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers
9:10 PM CDTC Over 9.0 runshitC First-5 Over 5.0hitwas no lean at 8:15 AM CDT · market moved away
Michael McGreevy
Eric LauerFINAL123456789RSTL02521012013LAD0030101038
game view →New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays
5:40 PM CDTC First-5 Over 4.0misswas B at 8:15 AM CDT · market moved toward usno lean · Over 8.0 runs
Sean Manaea
Freddy PeraltaFINAL123456789RNYM1000001002TB10100301—6
game view →New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels
8:38 PM CDTC First-5 Over 4.0hitwas no lean at 8:15 AM CDT · market moved awayno lean · Over 7.5 runs
Gerrit Cole
Grayson RodriguezFINAL123456789RNYY3010000217LAA0010020003
game view →THE REST OF THE SLATE· 3 games, no lean — the market has these priced
Athletics @ Texas Rangers · 7:05 PM CDT · Brady Basso vs MacKenzie Gorecard →Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians · 5:40 PM CDT · Spencer Miles vs Gavin Williamscard →Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals · 5:45 PM CDT · AJ Smith-Shawver vs Jake Irvincard →
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement doesn't earn extra conviction. Moneyline is ungraded because the model hasn't beaten that market, and we say so. Model fit 2021–2025, leave-one-season-out; F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023–2025). No grade is ever re-graded; only its result is filled in after the game. · Research, not betting advice. 21+. Problem? 1-800-GAMBLER.