You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
THE RECORDA 38–45 · B 125–101 · C 171–154 · 37 push — prospective, every grade frozen before first pitch and settled by machine.full record →
BEST OF THE SLATE
FEATURED · HIGHEST CONVICTION · stake 1u
San Diego Padres @ Cincinnati Reds
11:40 AM CDTA First-5 Over 5.5hitC Over 9.5 runshit
Casey Mize
Brandon WilliamsonTOTALmarket 48%
C cards won 52% · gap 4.4
FIRST 5market 47%
A cards won 55% · gap 7.4 · stake 1u
95°F — heat carries the ball
full card →FINAL123456789RSD2100000003CIN04000120—7
game view →A GRADES· 3 more
Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks
2:40 PM CDTA First-5 Under 4.5hitB Under 8.5 runshitwas A at 8:15 AM CDT · market moved toward us
Andrew Painter
Taylor ClarkeTOTALmarket 48%
B cards won 52% · gap 3.9 · stake 0.5u
FIRST 5market 47%
A cards won 55% · gap 7.2 · stake 1u
The home starter likely goes only an inning or two — relievers cover most of the game. Priced in, and it went too far — counts toward the under
full card →FINAL123456789RPHI0000000000AZ00000001—1
game view →Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians
5:40 PM CDTA Over 7.5 runshitno lean · First-5 Over 3.5
Dylan Cease
Joey Cantillomarket 47%
A cards won 54% · gap 7.0 · stake 1u
92°F — heat carries the ball
full card →FINAL123456789RTOR15100201111CLE0000000000
game view →Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox
3:10 PM CDTA Under 8.5 runsmissno lean · First-5 Under 4.5
Bryce Miller
Patrick Sandovalmarket 52%
A cards won 54% · gap 2.9 · stake 1u
Bullpen leans under — mostly the home team
full card →FINAL123456789RSEA0040040008BOS0001002003
game view →B GRADES· 2
Athletics @ Texas Rangers
1:35 PM CDTB First-5 Over 4.0hitwas no lean at 8:15 AM CDT · market moved awayno lean · Under 7.5 runs
Jacob Lopez
Cody Bradfordmarket 51%
B cards won 49% · gap 2.0
Umpire's strike zone runs narrower than most — fewer called strikes
full card →FINAL123456789RATH0032301009TEX1100000002
game view →New York Mets @ Tampa Bay Rays
5:40 PM CDTB First-5 Over 4.5hitC Over 8.0 runshit
Justin Hagenman
Griffin JaxTOTALmarket 50%
C cards won 52% · gap 1.8
FIRST 5market 50%
B cards won 49% · gap 0.7
The home starter hasn't thrown a major-league pitch in 30 days
full card →FINAL123456789RNYM30300031010TB0013000004
game view →C GRADES· worth a look, thinner edge
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs
6:40 PM CDTC Over 8.5 runshitwas B at 8:15 AM CDT · market moved toward usC First-5 Over 4.0hitwas B at 8:15 AM CDT · market moved toward us
Jacob Misiorowski
David PetersonFINAL123456789RMIL2103001029CHC2300000005
game view →San Francisco Giants @ Pittsburgh Pirates
5:40 PM CDTC First-5 Over 4.5misswas B at 8:15 AM CDT · market moved toward usno lean · Over 9.0 runs
Landen Roupp
Bubba ChandlerFINAL12345678910RSF10002000025PIT00010011014
game view →New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels
8:38 PM CDTC Under 6.5 runsmisswas no lean at 8:15 AM CDT · market moved awayno lean · First-5 Under 3.0
Cam Schlittler
Reid DetmersFINAL12345678910RNYY00010000056LAA00000010023
game view →Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros
7:10 PM CDTC Under 8.5 runshitno lean · First-5 Over 4.5
Davis Martin
Hayden WesneskiFINAL123456789RCWS0000000000HOU00000002—2
game view →Miami Marlins @ Kansas City Royals
6:40 PM CDTC First-5 Over 4.5hitno lean · Over 9.0 runs
Eury Pérez
Noah CameronFINAL123456789RMIA2010130029KC5001000006
game view →St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers
9:10 PM CDTC First-5 Over 4.5missno lean · Over 8.0 runs
Brycen Mautz
Yoshinobu YamamotoFINAL12345678910RSTL00000221038LAD30000200016
game view →Baltimore Orioles @ Colorado Rockies
2:10 PM CDTC First-5 Over 6.0missno lean · Under 11.5 runs
Trevor Rogers
Tomoyuki Sugano SERIES_UNDER The last game in this series finished 5 runs under its closing total — 6 runs against a total of 11. In 2021–25, the next game went under 54.6% of the time · personal rule, not graded
full card →FINAL1234567891011RBAL003000000025COL001100001036
game view →Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins
6:40 PM CDTC First-5 Over 4.5hitno lean · Over 8.5 runs
Drew Anderson
Dean KremerFINAL123456789101112RDET02002100001511MIN0001010300106
game view →THE REST OF THE SLATE· 1 game, no lean — the market has these priced
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement doesn't earn extra conviction. Moneyline is ungraded because the model hasn't beaten that market, and we say so. Model fit 2021–2025, leave-one-season-out; F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023–2025). No grade is ever re-graded; only its result is filled in after the game. · Research, not betting advice. 21+. Problem? 1-800-GAMBLER.