You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
THE RECORDA 36–42 · B 117–97 · C 157–144 · 32 push — prospective, every grade frozen before first pitch and settled by machine.full record →
BEST OF THE SLATE
FEATURED · HIGHEST CONVICTION · stake 1u
Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals
6:15 PM CDTA Over 8.5 runshitC First-5 Over 4.5hit
Sean Newcomb
Kyle LeahyTOTALmarket 48%
A cards won 54% · gap 6.3 · stake 1u
FIRST 5market 51%
C cards won 51% · gap 0.3
The away team's bullpen worked hard the last three days
full card →FINAL123456789RCWS0001300026STL0301000105
game view →A GRADES· 2 more
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs
1:20 PM CDTA Over 9.5 runsmissA First-5 Over 5.0miss
Paul Skenes
Clay HolmesTOTALmarket 50%
A cards won 54% · gap 4.1 · stake 1u
FIRST 5market 49%
A cards won 55% · gap 5.2 · stake 1u
Walk-prone umpire zone
full card →FINAL123456789RPIT0000030003CHC10100002—4
game view →Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays
5:10 PM CDTA Over 7.5 runsmissno lean · First-5 Under 4.0
Peter Lambert
Ian Seymourmarket 51%
A cards won 54% · gap 3.5 · stake 1u
Walk-prone umpire zone
full card →FINAL123456789RHOU1000010002TB00002010—3
game view →B GRADES· 5
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers
6:10 PM CDTB Under 8.5 runsmissC First-5 Over 5.0hitwas no lean at 8:15 AM CDT · market moved away
Brady Singer
Shane DrohanTOTALmarket 47%
B cards won 52% · gap 5.0 · stake 0.5u
FIRST 5market 48%
C cards won 51% · gap 3.1
The away team allowing 6.6 runs a game, last 30 — above league average. Priced in, and it went too far — counts toward the under
full card →FINAL123456789RCIN0113000409MIL40135000—13
game view →San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants
3:05 PM CDTB Over 8.0 runshitB First-5 Over 4.0hit
Michael King
Cesar PerdomoTOTALmarket 50%
B cards won 52% · gap 2.5 · stake 0.5u
FIRST 5market 53%
B cards won 49% · gap 4.2
The home starter has thrown 141 pitches over 30 days
full card →FINAL123456789RSD0211111007SF2100000306
game view →Seattle Mariners @ Athletics
8:40 PM CDTB Under 9.5 runsmissC First-5 Under 5.0miss
Bryan Woo
Gage JumpTOTALmarket 51%
B cards won 52% · gap 1.6 · stake 0.5u
FIRST 5market 48%
C cards won 51% · gap 3.1
The home starter walks 10% of batters, adjusted — a higher walk rate than average. Priced in, and it went too far — counts toward the under
full card →FINAL123456789RSEA23022034319ATH0010000001
game view →Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals
3:05 PM CDTB Under 8.0 runsmisswas C at 8:15 AM CDT · market moved awayC First-5 Under 4.5hitwas no lean at 8:15 AM CDT · market moved away
Walbert Ureña
Andrew AlvarezTOTALmarket 48%
B cards won 52% · gap 4.1 · stake 0.5u
FIRST 5market 53%
C cards won 51% · gap 1.9
The away team below league average in extra-base hits, last 30 games
full card →FINAL12345678910RLAA00000003205WSH13000000116
game view →Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins
3:10 PM CDTB First-5 Over 4.0hitno lean · Over 8.0 runs
Tyler Glasnow
Tyler Phillipsmarket 50%
B cards won 49% · gap 0.8
Starting pitchers leans over — mostly the home team
full card →FINAL123456789RLAD2000000013MIA03001000—4
game view →C GRADES· worth a look, thinner edge
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves
6:15 PM CDTC Under 8.5 runsmisswas no lean at 8:15 AM CDT · market moved awayno lean · First-5 Under 4.5
Tim Mayza
Tyler MahleFINAL123456789RPHI1000000102ATL00080103—12
game view →Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays
2:07 PM CDTC Over 8.0 runshitwas no lean at 8:15 AM CDT · market moved awayno lean · First-5 Over 4.5
Kyle Bradish
Spencer MilesFINAL123456789RBAL0001002003TOR20300110—7
game view →New York Mets @ New York Yankees
12:35 PM CDTC Under 8.0 runsmissno lean · First-5 Under 4.5
Zach Thornton
Gerrit ColeFINAL123456789RNYM12101015112NYY0001010002
game view →Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers
12:10 PM CDTC Under 8.5 runsmisswas no lean at 8:15 AM CDT · market moved awayno lean · First-5 Under 5.0
Tanner Gordon
Andrew SearsFINAL123456789RCOL0031020107DET00220007—11
game view →THE REST OF THE SLATE· 3 games, no lean — the market has these priced
Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins · 3:10 PM CDT · Daniel Espino vs Connor Prielippcard →Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox · 3:10 PM CDT · Randy Dobnak vs Ranger Suarezcard →Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks · 7:10 PM CDT · Kumar Rocker vs Brandon Pfaadtcard →
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement doesn't earn extra conviction. Moneyline is ungraded because the model hasn't beaten that market, and we say so. Model fit 2021–2025, leave-one-season-out; F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023–2025). No grade is ever re-graded; only its result is filled in after the game. · Research, not betting advice. 21+. Problem? 1-800-GAMBLER.