You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
THE RECORDA 38–45 · B 125–101 · C 171–154 · 37 push — prospective, every grade frozen before first pitch and settled by machine.full record →
BEST OF THE SLATE
FEATURED · HIGHEST CONVICTION · stake 1u
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians
12:40 PM CDTA First-5 Under 3.5misswas B at 8:15 AM CDT · market moved awayno lean · Under 7.0 runs
Jackson Jobe
Gavin Williamsmarket 47%
A cards won 55% · gap 7.7 · stake 1u
The home starter strikes out 31.6% of batters, adjusted — a higher strikeout rate than average
full card →FINAL12345678910RDET20000000002CLE10001000013
game view →B GRADES· 2
Milwaukee Brewers @ Cincinnati Reds
11:10 AM CDTB First-5 Over 4.5hitno lean · Over 8.5 runs
Kyle Harrison
Brady Singermarket 49%
B cards won 49% · gap 0.6
The home team above league average in home runs, last 30 games
full card →FINAL123456789RMIL0003300118CIN12123003—12
game view →Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox
5:20 PM CDTB First-5 Over 4.5missC Over 8.5 runshit
Bailey Ober
Bryan HudsonTOTALmarket 50%
C cards won 52% · gap 2.2
FIRST 5market 53%
B cards won 49% · gap 3.8
The home starter down 1.9 mph in his last start
full card →FINAL123456789RMIN0000001001CWS00001315—10
game view →C GRADES· worth a look, thinner edge
Toronto Blue Jays @ Kansas City Royals
1:10 PM CDTC Under 9.5 runshitC First-5 Under 5.0miss
Spencer Arrighetti
Randy DobnakFINAL123456789RTOR0000010001KC30201000—6
game view →Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates
12:35 PM CDTC Under 7.0 runshitno lean · First-5 Under 3.5
Walbert Ureña
Paul SkenesFINAL123456789RLAA0000000000PIT00100000—1
game view →Arizona Diamondbacks @ Houston Astros
1:10 PM CDTC Under 8.0 runshitno lean · First-5 Under 4.5
Eduardo Rodriguez
Peter LambertFINAL123456789RAZ0120000003HOU1000000102
game view →St. Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies
2:10 PM CDTC Under 11.0 runsmissno lean · First-5 Over 6.0
Kyle Leahy
Tanner GordonFINAL123456789RSTL01006003010COL2030000128
game view →Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers
1:35 PM CDTC Under 7.5 runsmisswas B at 8:15 AM CDT · market moved toward usno lean · First-5 Under 4.0
Ian Seymour
MacKenzie GoreFINAL123456789RTB0401001006TEX01042001—8
game view →THE REST OF THE SLATE· 7 games, no lean — the market has these priced
Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles · 12:35 PM CDT · Payton Tolle vs Kyle Bradishcard →Chicago Cubs @ Miami Marlins · 12:40 PM CDT · Clay Holmes vs Tyler Phillipscard →New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres · 3:10 PM CDT · Gerrit Cole vs Michael Kingcard →Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies · 12:10 PM CDT · Tyler Mahle vs Aaron Nolacard →Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers · 9:10 PM CDT · Andrew Alvarez vs Justin Wrobleskicard →Athletics @ Seattle Mariners · 3:10 PM CDT · Gage Jump vs Bryan Woocard →San Francisco Giants @ New York Mets · 12:40 PM CDT · Cesar Perdomo vs Christian Scottcard →
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement doesn't earn extra conviction. Moneyline is ungraded because the model hasn't beaten that market, and we say so. Model fit 2021–2025, leave-one-season-out; F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023–2025). No grade is ever re-graded; only its result is filled in after the game. · Research, not betting advice. 21+. Problem? 1-800-GAMBLER.