You have to decide based on everything. Here's everything — graded.
THE RECORDA 36–42 · B 117–97 · C 157–144 · 32 push — prospective, every grade frozen before first pitch and settled by machine.full record →
BEST OF THE SLATE
FEATURED · HIGHEST CONVICTION · stake 1u
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds
5:40 PM CDTA Over 8.5 runsmissA First-5 Over 4.0push
Blake Snell
Andrew AbbottTOTALmarket 48%
A cards won 54% · gap 6.6 · stake 1u
FIRST 5market 52%
A cards won 55% · gap 2.9 · stake 1u
The home team allowing 6.8 runs a game, last 30 — above league average
SERIES_UNDER The last game in this series finished 4.5 runs under its closing total — 4 runs against a total of 8.5. In 2021–25, the next game went under 54.6% of the time · personal rule, not graded · this card grades the OVER — the rule points the other way
full card →FINAL123456789RLAD0010010002CIN00201120—6
game view →A GRADES· 1 more
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels
8:38 PM CDTA Under 8.0 runsmisswas B at 8:15 AM CDT · market moved awayB First-5 Under 4.0miss
George Kirby
Yusei KikuchiTOTALmarket 50%
A cards won 54% · gap 4.0 · stake 1u
FIRST 5market 49%
B cards won 49% · gap 0.6
The away team allowing 6.1 runs a game, last 30 — above league average. Priced in, and it went too far — counts toward the under
SERIES_UNDER The last game in this series finished 5 runs under its closing total — 3 runs against a total of 8. In 2021–25, the next game went under 54.6% of the time · personal rule, not graded
full card →FINAL123456789RSEA2000320007LAA1100000002
game view →B GRADES· 6
Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs
6:40 PM CDTB First-5 Over 4.0hitno lean · Over 7.5 runs
JR Ritchie
Shota Imanagamarket 50%
B cards won 49% · gap 0.8
Team strength & form leans over — mostly the away team
full card →FINAL123456789RATL0000011024CHC10113011—8
game view →Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals
5:45 PM CDTB First-5 Over 4.5missC Over 9.0 runsmiss
Zack Wheeler
Jared SimpsonTOTALmarket 47%
C cards won 52% · gap 4.8
FIRST 5market 51%
B cards won 49% · gap 2.2
The home starter has thrown 67 pitches over 30 days
full card →FINAL123456789RPHI2000001003WSH0000000000
game view →Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays
2:07 PM CDTB First-5 Over 4.5misswas no lean at 8:15 AM CDT · market moved awayno lean · Over 8.5 runs
Keider Montero
Max Scherzermarket 50%
B cards won 49% · gap 0.9
The away starter strikes out 16.4% of batters, adjusted — a lower strikeout rate than average
full card →FINAL123456789RDET1000000001TOR00021200—5
game view →San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies
7:40 PM CDTB Under 11.0 runsmisswas A at 8:15 AM CDT · market moved toward usC First-5 Under 6.0miss
Robbie Ray
Mason AdamsTOTALmarket 52%
B cards won 52% · gap 0.5 · stake 0.5u
FIRST 5market 51%
C cards won 51% · gap 0.3
The home team allowing 6.1 runs a game, last 30 — above league averageagainst the under
full card →FINAL123456789RSD2101410009COL1000020003
game view →Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays
5:40 PM CDTB First-5 Over 4.5hitC Over 8.0 runsmiss
Brady Basso
Nick MartinezTOTALmarket 50%
C cards won 52% · gap 2.2
FIRST 5market 48%
B cards won 49% · gap 1.1
The home starter strikes out 15.7% of batters, adjusted — a lower strikeout rate than average
SERIES_UNDER The last game in this series finished 5 runs under its closing total — 3 runs against a total of 8. In 2021–25, the next game went under 54.6% of the time · personal rule, not graded · this card grades the OVER — the rule points the other way
full card →FINAL123456789RATH0020010003TB22000000—4
game view →Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets
6:10 PM CDTB First-5 Over 5.0hitwas C at 8:15 AM CDT · market moved awayno lean · Over 9.0 runs
Chris Bassitt
Xzavion Currymarket 50%
B cards won 49% · gap 0.9
The home starter has thrown 46 pitches over 30 days
full card →FINAL123456789RBAL1230000017NYM0001000001
game view →C GRADES· worth a look, thinner edge
Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks
8:40 PM CDTC Under 9.0 runshitwas B at 8:15 AM CDT · market moved toward usno lean · First-5 Under 5.0
Ryan Gusto
Merrill KellyFINAL123456789RMIA0220000004AZ0100100103
game view →Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros
7:10 PM CDTC Over 9.0 runsmisswas no lean at 8:15 AM CDT · market moved awayC First-5 Over 5.0miss
Daniel Lynch IV
Cristian JavierFINAL123456789RKC0002000305HOU0000000112
game view →Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers
7:05 PM CDTC First-5 Over 4.0hitno lean · Over 8.0 runs
Jake Bennett
MacKenzie GoreFINAL123456789RBOS2000100003TEX10011031—7
game view →New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins
12:40 PM CDTC Under 8.0 runsmissno lean · First-5 Over 4.0
Carlos Rodón
Zebby MatthewsFINAL12345678910111213RNYY00000000211004MIN10001000011015
game view →San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals
12:15 PM CDTC Over 8.0 runshitno lean · First-5 Over 4.5
Anthony Molina
Matthew LiberatoreFINAL12345678910RSF00100021026STL00000020215
game view →THE REST OF THE SLATE· 2 games, no lean — the market has these priced
Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians · 12:10 PM CDT · Anthony Kay vs Parker Messickcard →Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates · 5:40 PM CDT · Logan Henderson vs Jared Jonescard →
Honest row: grades cap at the band — extreme disagreement doesn't earn extra conviction. Moneyline is ungraded because the model hasn't beaten that market, and we say so. Model fit 2021–2025, leave-one-season-out; F5 grades ride a shorter history (2023–2025). No grade is ever re-graded; only its result is filled in after the game. · Research, not betting advice. 21+. Problem? 1-800-GAMBLER.